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Almost Half of Injured Haitians Are Children

  • Almost Half of Injured Haitians Are Children
  • Navy Cmdr. Jerry Berman, left, Henri Ford, CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta and Lt. Cmdr. Kathryn Berndt perform surgery on a Haitian girl with a severe head injury aboard the USS Vinson.

A statistical study by a specialist group at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles and USC indicates that the victims of the Jan. 12 earthquake include an extraordinarily high number of children — more than 110,000, nearly half of the estimated total.

This information should guide relief workers on the ground, according to Jeffrey Upperman and Robert Neches, co-developers of the Pediatric Emergency Decision Support System, a software tool to help medical service providers more effectively plan for, train for and respond to serious incidents and disasters affecting children.

The group has set up at blog (http://think-fast-decisions.blogspot.com/) to help guide the choice and distribution of relief supplies. The numbers are, if anything, understated, according to Neches, but the calculations use the latest available reports from relief efforts on the ground.

The pediatric support system uses statistical method to estimate how many of the potential victims of a disaster (so far, earthquakes have been most studied) in a given specific location (i.e., Los Angeles) will be children and what they will need. Children have special needs for equipment, including thinner hypodermic needles, appropriate pharmaceuticals in children’s dosages and medical specialists in pedriatics and other areas.

Such needs in Haiti are particularly intense, because 35 percent of the population is under 15, meaning the estimated total number of injuries (250,000) contains far more children than it would in other areas.

Software tools work with seven age groups, ranging from 0-1 month up to 12- to 18-year-olds. Applied to Haitian demographics, the tools predicted that injuries to persons under 18 make up nearly half of the total, or 111,000.

The same report detailed how many injuries are expected for each of 11 diagnoses, ranging from abdominal trauma to spine injury, in each of the age groups. Thus, for example, the model estimated that about 1,000 children aged 6 to 8 suffered crush injuries.

The software then uses these numbers to predict which medications and supplies each group of vicims would require. Thus, for treatment of the numerous crush injuries projected, the program lists the drugs required and totals the amounts needed. Such estimates can help relief organizations procure the right supplies in the right quantities.

Upperman’s immediate superior at Childrens Hospital is Henri Ford, chief of surgery and vice dean of medical education for the Keck School of Medicine of USC. Ford, of Haitian descent, is in Haiti.

While preparing Ford for what to expect, Upperman asked Neches about the feasibility of using the software system, which the pair began developing in 2006, to focus on the post-earthquake emergency.

Neches mobilized a team at USC’s Information Sciences Institute. Combining information provided by Childrens Hospital Miami and the California Institute of Technology Seismology Center with their own research, the team made the necessary changes and was producing results in days.

Neches is a division director at the Information Sciences Institute specializing in command-and-control computer systems designed to help decision-makers allocate resources in emergency situations.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services appropriated $1 million in 2007 to support the effort, which is now working through a Web interface with emergency service providers nationwide. Los Angeles County has supported work on the L.A. area earthquake module, which has become a model for parallel modules for other quake-prone areas.

In addition to Neches and Upperman, Childrens Hospital epidemiologist Rita Burke and Information Sciences Institute researchers Tatyana Ryutov, Craig Milo Rogers and Venkata Pingali worked on the Haitian studies. The software team is actively sharing the current results, methodology and software with colleagues and users.

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